Baseball season is finally here and so is DraftKings baseball.
Throughout the year, I will be writing a daily article to help you win more money at MLB DFS. The plays will be based solely on DraftKings pricing, but most players will have value on other DFS sites as well.
Call me crazy, but the baseball season is my favorite time of year…Why? Because it’s every single day. So, if you have a bad night, don’t worry, tomorrow you’ll have the opportunity to redeem yourself. It’s not like football where there’s a build-up of anxiety leading up to Sunday.
Wait, no one else gets anxiety about fantasy sports? I’m the only psycho?
Anyway, my picks will be a mix of high-priced players and those that are less expensive. As a bonus, I will list the three most important stats that I and other successful fantasy baseball and DFS players use to help build line ups.
1. ISO-Isolated Power
To avoid sounding like a total idiot let me give you the FanGraphs definition of ISO.
Isolated Power (ISO) is a measure of a hitter’s raw power and tells you how often a player hits for extra bases. We know that not all hits are created equally and ISO provides you with a quick tool for determining the degree to which a given hitter provides extra-base hits as opposed to singles.
Basically, ISO evaluates a player’s raw power. There is a strong correlation between home run and ISO leaderboards, so naturally, we want to target players with a high ISO because they’re more likely to hit home runs or extra-base hits.
2. wOBA – Weighted On-Base Average
Weighted On-Base Average combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value. While batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage fall short in accuracy and scope, wOBA measures and captures offensive value more accurately and comprehensively.
wOBA is a bit more complicated. wOBA combines OBP (on-base percentage) and SLG (slugging percentage), which makes it more valuable. If a player has a high wOBA more times than not they are a productive player that has fantasy value.
K% – Strikeout Rate
I don’t need fancy FanGraphs for this one. K% is pretty simple…Think of it as the number of times a pitcher strikes out hitters. It really doesn’t get much easier than K%. Everyone should want to target players with a high K%. Why?
Strikeouts are valuable to fantasy players. The higher the K%, the higher the strikeout total, the more fantasy points by the pitcher. Easy as 1, 2, 3…
Let’s get to the picks.
*Picks are for the 3 pm main slate
Smaller six-game slate tonight, which is my favorite kind of slate.
Pitching tonight is going to be hard to come by…that’s for sure. As always, I’ll give you my favorite plays.
Let’s get into it.
Yu Darvish $8.8K
Kenta Madea will be the highest owned pitcher on the slate and rightfully so. He seemed to figure things out in the second half of last season and had a K% of 28.8%. If you’re looking to be contrarian, however, Yu Darvish is an intriguing pivot.
Darvish looked good in spring and seems to be motivated to prove his doubters wrong in 2019. Yes, he is facing his former team, but the Rangers’ lineup is far from scary outside of Joey Gallo.
The only concern for Darvish is his pitch count, which could have him out of the game by the fifth or six inning. Still, the hope is that most of his outs come via the punchout. Last year, Darvish had a K% of 27.2%. That was in limited action as well.
Cubs left-handed hitters vs. Edinson Volquez
The Cubs big bats like Javier Baez and Kris Bryant will be a chalky play once again on Saturday night. The entire Cubs’ offense has a tasty matchup against Edinson Volquez, who I just found out was still pitching earlier today.
One way to be a bit different tonight is to only roster the left-handed hitters of the Cubs. Ben Zobrist, Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber and Jason Heyward are all in a great spot tonight.
Rizzo is my favorite play here, especially because a lot of people are going to chase Paul Goldschmidt after his three-homer game last night.
Paul Dejong $3.4K
Dejong’s price on DK continues to be one of the most confusing things in DFS baseball 2019. His low price tag will allow us to fit in other studs. It’s important to jump on his low price tag before it gets too high.
I will lock Dejong in my lineups until he’s more than $3.6K.