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Baseball season is finally here and so is DraftKings baseball.

Throughout the year, I will be writing a daily article to help you win more money at MLB DFS. The plays will be based solely on DraftKings pricing, but most players will have value on other DFS sites as well.

Call me crazy, but the baseball season is my favorite time of year…Why? Because it’s every single day. So, if you have a bad night, don’t worry, tomorrow you’ll have the opportunity to redeem yourself. It’s not like football where there’s a build-up of anxiety leading up to Sunday.

Wait, no one else gets anxiety about fantasy sports? I’m the only psycho?

Anyway, my picks will be those that are less expensive. Most people can figure out who the top plays on a given slate are, it’s a bit tougher to find the diamonds in the rough. As a bonus, I will list the three most important stats that I and other successful fantasy baseball and DFS players use to help build lineups.

1. ISO-Isolated Power

To avoid sounding like a total idiot, let me give you the FanGraphs definition of ISO.

Isolated Power (ISO) is a measure of a hitter’s raw power and tells you how often a player hits for extra bases. We know that not all hits are created equally and ISO provides you with a quick tool for determining the degree to which a given hitter provides extra-base hits as opposed to singles.

Basically, ISO evaluates a player’s raw power. There is a strong correlation between home runs and ISO leaderboards, so naturally, we want to target players with a high ISO because they’re more likely to hit home runs or extra-base hits. Just think of ISO as a better version of batting average and slugging percentage combined. 

2. wOBA – Weighted On-Base Average

FanGraphs: 

Weighted On-Base Average combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value. While batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage fall short in accuracy and scope, wOBA measures and captures offensive value more accurately and comprehensively.

wOBA is a bit more complicated than ISO. wOBA combines OBP (on-base percentage) and SLG (slugging percentage), which makes it more valuable. If a player has a high wOBA more times than not they are a productive player that has fantasy value.

3. K% – Strikeout Rate 

I don’t need fancy FanGraphs for this one. K% is pretty simple…Think of it as the number of times a pitcher strikes out hitters. It really doesn’t get much easier than K%. Everyone should want to target players with a high K%.  Why?

Strikeouts are valuable to fantasy players. The higher the K%, the higher the strikeout total, the more fantasy points by the pitcher. Easy as 1, 2, 3…

Pitchers 

Zack Greinke $7.6K 

There are going to be a lot of people who pay up for pitching tonight. We have Justin Verlander ($11.5K), Max Scherzer ($11.8K), and Chris Sale ($10.8K) all throwing tonight. One way to be contrarian will be to pay down for pitching and up for hitting.

One pitcher tonight who is underpriced is Zack Greinke, who has a good matchup against the Padres, a team who has the highest opponent K% on the slate at 25.7%. Sorry, but Machado isn’t enough to make up for that.

On the road, Greinke is risky, but he’s pitching in a pitcher’s friendly park. Sure, the HC% is enough to scare a lot of people off, but I’m willing to take the risk tonight by fading the expensive chalk.

Other Targets – Mike Fiers $6.8K, Jose Berrios $9.7K 

Hitters 

Nolan Arenado $4.1K 

When is the last time Arenado has been priced this low? Sure, he has a tough matchup against the Shelby Miller, but let’s keep in mind he still has a wOBA of .421 on the road against lefties.

Even if you’re paying up for pitching you should be able to fit Arenado in your lineup tonight.

Astros Stack 

The Astros stack last night burned a lot of people. They only managed to score two runs against the Rangers. I’m going right back to that stack again tonight. I’m loading up with Altuve ($5.2K), Bregman ($5K), Brantley ($4.5K), and Reddick ($4.2K).

Keep in mind that the Astros also have the highest implied team run total on the slate at 5.19.

Nick is the editor-in-chief at TheLoopSports.com & owner of TheChalkTLS.com. He also is a fantasy sports junkie, DFS player, and prop play guru. For more fun, follow him on Twitter @PetroTLS

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Nick Petro

Nick is a recent graduate of Northern Illinois University and passionate about everything Chicago sports (except the Cubs). He hopes to one day see his beloved Bears win the Super Bowl and is still trying to figure out why Jay Cutler gets so much hate.

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