Baseball season is finally here and so is DraftKings baseball.
Throughout the year, I will be writing a daily article to help you win more money at MLB DFS. The plays will be based solely on DraftKings pricing, but most players will have value on other DFS sites as well.
Call me crazy, but the baseball season is my favorite time of year…Why? Because it’s every single day. So, if you have a bad night, don’t worry, tomorrow you’ll have the opportunity to redeem yourself. It’s not like football where there’s a build-up of anxiety leading up to Sunday.
Wait, no one else gets anxiety about fantasy sports? I’m the only psycho?
Anyway, my picks will be those that are less expensive. Most people can figure out who the top plays on a given slate are, it’s a bit tougher to find the diamonds in the rough. As a bonus, I will list the three most important stats that I and other successful fantasy baseball and DFS players use to help build lineups.
1. ISO-Isolated Power
To avoid sounding like a total idiot, let me give you the FanGraphs definition of ISO.
Isolated Power (ISO) is a measure of a hitter’s raw power and tells you how often a player hits for extra bases. We know that not all hits are created equally and ISO provides you with a quick tool for determining the degree to which a given hitter provides extra-base hits as opposed to singles.
Basically, ISO evaluates a player’s raw power. There is a strong correlation between home runs and ISO leaderboards, so naturally, we want to target players with a high ISO because they’re more likely to hit home runs or extra-base hits. Just think of ISO as a better version of batting average and slugging percentage combined.
2. wOBA – Weighted On-Base Average
Weighted On-Base Average combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value. While batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage fall short in accuracy and scope, wOBA measures and captures offensive value more accurately and comprehensively.
wOBA is a bit more complicated than ISO. wOBA combines OBP (on-base percentage) and SLG (slugging percentage), which makes it more valuable. If a player has a high wOBA more times than not they are a productive player that has fantasy value.
3. K% – Strikeout Rate
I don’t need fancy FanGraphs for this one. K% is pretty simple…Think of it as the number of times a pitcher strikes out hitters. It really doesn’t get much easier than K%. Everyone should want to target players with a high K%. Why?
Strikeouts are valuable to fantasy players. The higher the K%, the higher the strikeout total, the more fantasy points by the pitcher. Easy as 1, 2, 3…
Had a nice little off day and now it’s time to get back to work. We have a four-game early slate and a four-game main slate. I’m going to split them up and give you my favorite bargain plays from each one.
Let’s get into it.
Jakob Junis $8K
Last time out, Junis struck out six against the White Sox. On Thursday, he has an even easier matchup against the Tigers. Junis currently has the third highest opponent K% on the slate.
Jorge Soler $3.8K
I like a lot of Royals in this game, but Soler offers the most upside given his raw power. He’s also batting in the cleanup spot on a regular basis.
Stephen Piscotty $3.8K
Piscotty will get a favorable matchup with a lefthanded pitcher tomorrow. In 2018, Piscotty had a wOBA of .337 against lefties. He could leave the yard on Thursday afternoon.
David Bote $3.8K
David Bote against lefties is always a good matchup. Don’t over think this one, especially given the 5-year extension Bote just received.
Kole Calhoun $3.9K & Justin Bour $4.1K
Last week, we discovered that Edison Volquez was still in the MLB. Let’s not forget that lefties had a wOBA of .347 against him in 2017. Both Calhoun and Bour have upside in their matchup with Volquez on Thursday night, they also come on a cheap price tag.