Baseball season is finally here and so is DraftKings baseball.
Throughout the year, I will be writing a daily article to help you win more money at MLB DFS. The plays will be based solely on DraftKings pricing, but most players will have value on other DFS sites as well.
Call me crazy, but the baseball season is my favorite time of year…Why? Because it’s every single day. So, if you have a bad night, don’t worry, tomorrow you’ll have the opportunity to redeem yourself. It’s not like football where there’s a build-up of anxiety leading up to Sunday.
Wait, no one else gets anxiety about fantasy sports? I’m the only psycho?
Anyway, my picks will be those that are less expensive. Most people can figure out who the top plays on a given slate are, it’s a bit tougher to find the diamonds in the rough. As a bonus, I will list the three most important stats that I and other successful fantasy baseball and DFS players use to help build lineups.
1. ISO-Isolated Power
To avoid sounding like a total idiot, let me give you the FanGraphs definition of ISO.
Isolated Power (ISO) is a measure of a hitter’s raw power and tells you how often a player hits for extra bases. We know that not all hits are created equally and ISO provides you with a quick tool for determining the degree to which a given hitter provides extra-base hits as opposed to singles.
Basically, ISO evaluates a player’s raw power. There is a strong correlation between home runs and ISO leaderboards, so naturally, we want to target players with a high ISO because they’re more likely to hit home runs or extra-base hits. Just think of ISO as a better version of batting average and slugging percentage combined.
2. wOBA – Weighted On-Base Average
Weighted On-Base Average combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value. While batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage fall short in accuracy and scope, wOBA measures and captures offensive value more accurately and comprehensively.
wOBA is a bit more complicated than ISO. wOBA combines OBP (on-base percentage) and SLG (slugging percentage), which makes it more valuable. If a player has a high wOBA more times than not they are a productive player that has fantasy value.
3. K% – Strikeout Rate
I don’t need fancy FanGraphs for this one. K% is pretty simple…Think of it as the number of times a pitcher strikes out hitters. It really doesn’t get much easier than K%. Everyone should want to target players with a high K%. Why?
Strikeouts are valuable to fantasy players. The higher the K%, the higher the strikeout total, the more fantasy points by the pitcher. Easy as 1, 2, 3…
It was a big day for Thursday’s picks, to say the least.
Stephen Piscotty $3.8K
Piscotty will get a favorable matchup with a lefthanded pitcher tomorrow. In 2018, Piscotty had a wOBA of .337 against lefties. He could leave the yard on Thursday afternoon.
Piscotty ended up scoring 35 DK points. Keep in mind he was only 3.8K! That’s what this daily article is all about…finding value! Let’s continue to do that for Friday’s slate of games.
-Consider these players for the 4 early slate games on Friday
- Eloy Jimenez
- Austin Barnes
- David Freese
- Tim Anderson
- Daniel Vogelbach
Jose Quintana $8.4K
The Cubs are on a five-game losing streak and the bullpen stinks. With that being said, I LOVE Jose Quintana on Friday night. He is 6-2 with a 1.62 ERA against the Brewers in his career. He also had a 4-1 record against them last season to go along with a 2.13 ERA.
Pitching is hard to find on Friday night’s slate. Collin McHugh is the highest priced pitcher at $9.5K. One way to be contrarian would be to select Quintana as your SP1. Many people will still away from him because of the Cubs’ recent struggles and the fact that the Brewers are 6-1.
TAKE. THE. RISK.
Other Targets – Brandon Woodruff $6.8K, Nick Pivetta $7.7K
Michael Brantley $4.2K
Brantley’s price will not be this low for long, especially when the Astros’ offense takes off. He should sit around 4.5K throughout the year. For now, though, we can take advantage of his discounted price tag.
Frankie Montas had a wOBA on the road against left-handed hitters of .320 in 2018. I don’t see that number improving in 2019.
Justin Bour $4.1K
Bour was apart of my write up on Thursday, He let a lot of us down, but the great part about baseball is there’s always another day. I’m going right back to Bour tonight, who has another favorable matchup against a righty.
Lefties had a wOBA of .366 against Lynn last season. I would consider taking all of the left-handed hitters in the Angels lineup on Friday.
Other Targets – Ben Zobrist $3.8K, Marwin Gonzalez $4K, Mark Canha $3.8K