Baseball season is finally here and so is DraftKings baseball.
Throughout the year, I will be writing a daily article to help you win more money at MLB DFS. The plays will be based solely on DraftKings pricing, but most players will have value on other DFS sites as well.
Call me crazy, but the baseball season is my favorite time of year…Why? Because it’s every single day. So, if you have a bad night, don’t worry, tomorrow you’ll have the opportunity to redeem yourself. It’s not like football where there’s a build-up of anxiety leading up to Sunday.
Wait, no one else gets anxiety about fantasy sports? I’m the only psycho?
Anyway, my picks will be those that are less expensive. Most people can figure out who the top plays on a given slate are, it’s a bit tougher to find the diamonds in the rough. As a bonus, I will list the three most important stats that I and other successful fantasy baseball and DFS players use to help build lineups.
1. ISO-Isolated Power
To avoid sounding like a total idiot, let me give you the FanGraphs definition of ISO.
Isolated Power (ISO) is a measure of a hitter’s raw power and tells you how often a player hits for extra bases. We know that not all hits are created equally and ISO provides you with a quick tool for determining the degree to which a given hitter provides extra-base hits as opposed to singles.
Basically, ISO evaluates a player’s raw power. There is a strong correlation between home runs and ISO leaderboards, so naturally, we want to target players with a high ISO because they’re more likely to hit home runs or extra-base hits. Just think of ISO as a better version of batting average and slugging percentage combined.
2. wOBA – Weighted On-Base Average
Weighted On-Base Average combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value. While batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage fall short in accuracy and scope, wOBA measures and captures offensive value more accurately and comprehensively.
wOBA is a bit more complicated than ISO. wOBA combines OBP (on-base percentage) and SLG (slugging percentage), which makes it more valuable. If a player has a high wOBA more times than not they are a productive player that has fantasy value.
3. K% – Strikeout Rate
I don’t need fancy FanGraphs for this one. K% is pretty simple…Think of it as the number of times a pitcher strikes out hitters. It really doesn’t get much easier than K%. Everyone should want to target players with a high K%. Why?
Strikeouts are valuable to fantasy players. The higher the K%, the higher the strikeout total, the more fantasy points by the pitcher. Easy as 1, 2, 3…
I’m going to give you both starting pitchers I’ll be using in today’s early slate!
Blake Snell $10.7K
Talk about chalk. It’s going to be too hard to fade Blake Snell today though. He has a great matchup against the Blue Jays. For those that thought Snell’s, CY Young season was a fluke, check out his first three starts on 2019:
First 3 starts:
6 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 2 BB 3 K
7 IP, 2 H, 0 ER1 BB, 13 K
6 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 11 K
I’ll be paying up for Snell today, who is still priced under 11K. That’s cheap for a guy with a K% of 32.2%.
Kyle Hendricks $7.4K
Hendricks had an ugly outing last week, but now he’s pitching against a Mike Trout-less Angels team at home. Last season hitters had a wOBA of .289 against Hendricks when he pitched at Wrigley, compared to a wOBA of .301. $7.4K is way too cheap for Hendricks, especially when he’s pitching at home.
Stack: Red Sox vs. Andrew Cashner
The Red Sox have a dream matchup today against Andrew Cashner. If you could afford it, get as many Red Sox players into your lineup as you can. Here are my two favorites.
- Andrew Benintendi
- Mitch Moreland
Greg Bird $3.9K
If Moreland is too expensive for you, then look no further than Greg Bird, who is priced under 4K. Left-handers have a wOBA of .421 against Nova so far in 2019. Bird has homerun upside and he is someone you should target on Saturday.
Daniel Descalso $3.9K
Chris Stratton is going for the Angels today and our analytic-friendly friend is starting the versatile Daniel Descalso at second base. Descalso will also leadoff for the Cubs on Saturday. So far in 2019, lefties have a wOBA .435 against Stratton.
Eloy Jimenez $3.9K
This is purely a gut feel play. Eloy hit not one, but two homers last night. When he gets hot, no one can stop him. Today, he has a matchup against CC Sabathia, who hitters had a wOBA. of .317 in 2018.
- I will also add plays for tonight’s main-slate later today.
LATE GAME TARGETS
– Stack A’s in Texas, throw in Joey Gallo too.
– Nick Ahmed SS
-Jefry Rodriguez cheap SP 2